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藉由發展複層林實施碳中和計畫Implementation of the Carbon Neutralization Plan by Means of the Development of a Multi-Storied Forest

Chang, C., Lo, H., Wei, C., Chen, C., Chen, J.｜Forests 17(2): 169｜DOI: 10.3390/f17020169

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森林數位孿生產業應用

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carbon neutralizationafforestationcarbon sequestrationimproved forest managementmulti-storied forestVCS VM0005MRVscenario-based estimationbiomass expansion factorfield plot surveyTaiwanTaipei

專討核心文獻定位

[81] Ch7 · 數位孿生 ★ 新增
Chang et al. · 2026
以台北翠山次生林為場域，用 VCS VM0005 與 MRV 評估造林結合改善式經營，25 年四情境固碳 3816 至 4523 噸，可在 8 至 9 年抵銷台北雙年展 390 噸排放

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為什麼納入這篇

This paper is one of the few empirical Taiwan-based applications of standardized MRV carbon accounting (VCS VM0005) to a real secondary forest, offering a concrete, locally grounded reference for how a forest carbon offset workflow is measured, reported, and verified, which a Taiwan forest digital twin would ultimately need to operationalize.

結構式摘要｜中英文對照

研究問題
在台灣長期限制商業伐採、形成大面積過密次生林的政策脈絡下，造林結合改善式森林經營（IFM）能否作為大型文化活動的碳抵換機制，並在可接受的年限內抵銷活動排放？
Under Taiwan's long-standing logging restrictions that have produced extensive overstocked secondary forests, can afforestation combined with improved forest management (IFM) serve as a carbon offset mechanism for a large-scale cultural event and offset the event emissions within an acceptable time frame?
資料來源
研究場域為台北市士林區翠山段的公有林地，總面積 52.70 公頃，劃設 10.11 公頃為計畫活動區。原文以 2019 年航照與現地樣區調查取得森林資源資料；於造林面積 10% 範圍設置 20 個 0.05 公頃臨時樣區，合計調查 1 公頃，量測樹種、胸高直徑（DBH）與樹高。因缺乏長期生長記錄，基線生長率改以福山森林動態樣區（林業署）之文獻代理資料表示。
The study site is public woodland in the Cuishan section of Shilin District, Taipei, with a total area of 52.70 ha and a 10.11 ha project activity area. Forest resource data came from 2019 aerial imagery and field plot surveys: 20 temporary plots of 0.05 ha each (10% of the afforested area, 1 ha total) recorded tree species, DBH, and tree height. Lacking long-term growth records, baseline growth rates were represented using proxy data from the Fushan Forest Dynamic Plot (Forestry Agency, Taiwan).
方法
採情境式森林經營框架。以小區塊選擇性疏伐（改良伐）移除生長不良、受壓木，保留優勢木與冠層，再以原生樹種（台灣肖楠 Calocedrus formosana、楓香 Liquidambar formosana、相思樹 Acacia confusa）造林，發展複層林。碳計算依 Verified Carbon Standard（VCS）方法學 VM0005 v1.2，遵循量測、報告與查證（MRV）原則；以生物量擴展係數法、樹幹材積式 V = 0.00008626 × D^1.8742 × H^0.8671，及 IPCC 規範計算碳變化，再以 44/12 換算為 CO2 當量。設定四個基線生長情境（A 0.5、B 1.0、C 2.0、D 2.5 m3 ha-1 yr-1），評估 25 年期間的淨 CO2 移除。
A scenario-based forest management framework was used. Small-block selective thinning (improvement cutting) removed poorly formed and suppressed trees while retaining dominant trees and canopy, followed by afforestation with native species (Calocedrus formosana, Liquidambar formosana, Acacia confusa) to develop a multi-storied forest. Carbon was accounted under VCS methodology VM0005 v1.2 following MRV principles, using the biomass expansion factor method, the stem volume equation V = 0.00008626 × D^1.8742 × H^0.8671, and IPCC guidelines, then converted to CO2-e via the 44/12 ratio. Four baseline growth scenarios (A 0.5, B 1.0, C 2.0, D 2.5 m3 ha-1 yr-1) were evaluated over a 25-year period.
主要結果
台北雙年展 2020 排放量估為約 390 t CO2-e。場域標準木平均 DBH 約 11.75 ± 6.54 cm、平均樹高約 6.54 ± 1.84 m、蓄積約 96.18 m3 ha-1。疏伐強度約 16.92%，造林密度約 1000 株 ha-1（不含保留木），合計造林 10110 株（台灣肖楠 6580、楓香 910、相思樹 2620）。25 年累積固碳量：情境 A 約 4523.39、B 約 4346.64、C 約 3993.15、D 約 3816.40 t CO2-e；四情境皆超過 3800 t CO2-e，活動排放可在約第 8 至第 9 年抵銷。
Taipei Biennial 2020 emissions were estimated at about 390 t CO2-e. Stand mean DBH was about 11.75 ± 6.54 cm, mean height about 6.54 ± 1.84 m, and standing volume about 96.18 m3 ha-1. Thinning intensity was about 16.92%, and afforestation density was about 1000 trees ha-1 excluding retained trees, totaling 10,110 planted trees (6,580 Calocedrus formosana, 910 Liquidambar formosana, 2,620 Acacia confusa). Cumulative 25-year sequestration: Scenario A about 4523.39, B about 4346.64, C about 3993.15, and D about 3816.40 t CO2-e. All four scenarios exceeded 3800 t CO2-e, and event emissions were offset at about year 8 to year 9.
限制
原文自承不確定性源於假設性的經營假設與缺乏長期在地生長記錄，基線改用情境框架與代理資料而非確定值。碳抵換年限應視為依情境而定、受不確定性影響的結果而非保證目標。原文建議未來研究納入機率式建模、信賴區間與敏感度分析，並擴及其他都市與都市周邊森林以釐清適用性。
The authors acknowledge uncertainty arising from hypothetical management assumptions and the absence of long-term site-specific growth records, so the baseline used a scenario framework and proxy data rather than deterministic values. The offset timelines should be interpreted as scenario-dependent outcomes subject to uncertainty rather than guaranteed targets. The paper recommends future work incorporate probabilistic modeling, confidence intervals, and sensitivity analyses, and expand to other urban and peri-urban forests to clarify applicability.

Key Findings

發現證據確定性
Afforestation combined with improved forest management (IFM) in a Taiwan secondary forest is estimated to offset the Taipei Biennial 2020 emissions (about 390 t CO2-e) within roughly 8 to 9 years across four baseline scenarios.Abstract and Section 3.3: 25-year cumulative sequestration ranged 3816 to 4523 t CO2-e; offset estimated at about year 8 (Scenarios A, B) to year 9 (Scenarios C, D).checked_against_original_txt
Carbon was accounted using the VCS methodology VM0005 v1.2 under MRV principles, with a biomass expansion factor method and a stem volume equation to convert field DBH/height to CO2-e.Section 2.4.3 and Conclusions: VM0005 v1.2 adopted under MRV; stem volume V = 0.00008626 × D^1.8742 × H^0.8671; carbon via BEF, root-to-shoot ratio, carbon fraction, and 44/12 conversion.checked_against_original_txt
The project applied small-block selective thinning (intensity about 16.92%) and planted about 10,110 native trees at roughly 1000 trees ha-1 to develop a multi-storied structure rather than clear-cutting or monoculture.Section 3.2 and Table 2: thinning intensity 16.92%; afforestation density about 1000 trees ha-1; 6,580 Calocedrus formosana, 910 Liquidambar formosana, 2,620 Acacia confusa.checked_against_original_txt

Key Figures and Tables

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項目內容關鍵數字Jacky 判讀重用策略
Table 1原文列出 20 個樣區的 TWD97 座標、林型、平均 DBH、平均樹高、每公頃株數與固碳量（蓄積，m3/ha），顯示場域以胸徑 5 至 10 cm 的小徑木為主，僅少數樣區 DBH 大於 25 cm。20 個樣區；平均 DBH 約 11.75 ± 6.54 cm；平均樹高約 6.54 ± 1.84 m；蓄積約 96.18 m3 ha-1。這張表是把現地樣區量測轉成碳估算輸入的起點，正好對應森林 FDT 觀測層所需的真實地面資料粒度。CC BY 4.0 可重製或改繪，須標註出處；簡報優先沿用既有導讀素材。
Table 3逐年（第 1 至 25 年）列出保留木材積生長量（m3）、碳儲量（噸）與以 CO2 當量計的碳儲量（含每公頃值），呈現保留木隨時間線性累積的碳貢獻。保留木年生長約 17.96 m3 yr-1；第 25 年保留木碳儲量約 627.81 t CO2-e（約 62.10/ha）。這份逐年表是 MRV 報告層的核心輸出，可作為森林 FDT 模擬層輸出格式的參照。CC BY 4.0 可重製或改繪，須標註出處。
Figure 8, Figure 9Figure 8 呈現計畫活動 25 年的 CO2 變化與總量；Figure 9 比較基線與計畫情境的 25 年 CO2 變化，顯示四情境累積固碳皆超過 3800 t CO2-e。情境 A 約 4523.39、B 約 4346.64、C 約 3993.15、D 約 3816.40 t CO2-e；抵銷約於第 8 至 9 年。這兩張圖是把基線與計畫情境並列的決策視覺化，對應 FDT 的情境比較與決策支援功能。CC BY 4.0 可重製或改繪，須標註出處。

Extracted Evidence Table

可支撐主張指標或結果原文位置可引用備註
在台灣次生林以造林結合 IFM 可作為大型文化活動的可信碳抵換機制。25 年四情境累積固碳 3816 至 4523 t CO2-e，可在約第 8 至 9 年抵銷台北雙年展 2020 的約 390 t CO2-e。Abstract; Section 3.3; Conclusions.True可作為 Taiwan 在地 MRV 碳抵換可行性的代表性實證；惟結果為情境式估算而非已查證的長期實測，勿描述為確定值。
碳計算採國際公認的 VCS VM0005 v1.2 方法學並遵循 MRV 原則。以生物量擴展係數法、樹幹材積式與 IPCC 規範計算碳變化，再以 44/12 換算 CO2 當量。Section 2.4.3; Equations (1)-(6); Conclusions.True支撐論述森林碳抵換需建立在標準化 MRV 流程之上，為 FDT 的可查證性提供現實對照。

Critical Appraisal

Strengths

Weaknesses

Validation qualityscenario-based estimation with field-survey inputs and literature proxy growth data; not validated against long-term measured sequestration.
Transferability to Taiwanvery high; the study is conducted in Taiwan under Taiwan's forest conservation policy context.
Risk of overclaiming勿將情境式估算的固碳量與抵銷年限當作已查證的確定結果；原文明示為依情境而定、受不確定性影響的推估。

與 Jacky 博論 / Review 的用途

博士論文為博論提供一個台灣在地、以 MRV 為核心的森林碳抵換實證案例，可作為森林數位孿生最終須落地的量測—報告—查證流程的現實基準。
TJFS Review為 TJFS review 補上台灣相關性極高的 MRV 碳會計實證，並把森林碳抵換的標準化方法學與一般遙測估算區隔開。
可引用句候選2026 年，Chang 等人發表的文獻中指出，在台灣次生林以造林結合改善式森林經營，依 VCS VM0005 方法學與 MRV 原則估算，25 年四個基線情境的累積固碳量介於 3816 至 4523 噸 CO2 當量，可在約第八至第九年抵銷台北雙年展 2020 約 390 噸的排放。
不可用來主張勿用本文作為森林數位孿生技術本身的證據，本文未建置數位孿生，僅屬 MRV 碳抵換的情境式可行性評估。

授權與圖表重用

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